CHERBOURG, FRANCE – Yesterday, on our way to the Cherbourg ferry, we stopped in at a local farm fair in Normandy.

On display were the best cows in the region, along with a demonstration of old farming equipment.

A batteuse is a threshing machine. Invented by a Scotsman in the 18th century, and improved and widely employed in the 19th, it was one of the many mechanical advances that reduced the need for farm labor.

image

The local farmers show off the 19th century batteuse, a threshing machine

These innovations were so successful that the whole world of work was turned upside down. At the beginning of the 19th century, almost everyone was a farmer. By the end of the 20th century, almost no one was.

In the space of 200 years, almost the entire labor force was retrained and redirected.

Swing Riots

Harvesting was heavy, hard, communal work up until a few years ago. It took many hands to separate the wheat from the chaff.

You had to beat the dried plant with flails; that is, you had to give it a good thrashing to shake loose the wheat from the straw. Then, along came the mechanical thresher (the batteuse here in France) to make the process easier.

But it didn’t look very easy yesterday. A group of local hobbyists keeps the old machines in service. The machines still work, but the old farmers who know how to use them are failing.

Labor is our subject today. When mechanical threshers first appeared in southeast England, they threatened farmers’ jobs.

The locals decided not to wait to find out how the Industrial Revolution played out. Instead, on August 28, 1830, they attacked a threshing machine.

Over the next few weeks, they destroyed about 100 of them in what was called the Swing Riots.

Like everything else, labor is subject to innovations, trends, and price swings. No one knows what an hour of someone’s time is worth.

Instead, it is discovered in the markets. Prices go up, generally, when labor is scarce (such as during wartime… or after a plague). They go down when there are a lot of people competing for a few jobs.

Generally, too, people are happy with market-discovered wages when they are on the rise; when wages go down, they go on the rampage.

Friday’s figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delighted most observers. CNBC reports:

August’s surprise jump in wages could be a sign of more wage growth ahead – good news for workers and a green light for the Fed when it comes to interest rate hikes.

The workforce expanded by 201,000 in August, 10,000 more than expected, but the big surprise was in the 0.4 percent increase in average hourly wages, double what was expected on a monthly basis. Helped by revisions in June and July data, wages grew at a 2.9 percent annual pace last month. […]

The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent, while economists had expected it to decline by a tenth of a point. While more jobs were added in August than expected, there was a 50,000 downward revision in June and July jobs, bringing the three month average down to 185,000. The participation rate was also disappointing, dropping 0.2 to 62.7 percent, the lowest level in 15 months, possibly due to retiring workers.

“Beyond Full Employment”

Reading only the headlines, you might think that the economy is chugging along nicely. “Wage Growth Hits 9-Year High,” was the headline in Investor’s Business Daily.

But it takes just a few seconds to see that the whole picture is false. While wages grew at a 2.9% pace last month, so did prices. Net, the wage earner is no better off. This has been the story for the last 40 years.

And those hoping for real wage growth now are likely to be disappointed. Since the beginning of this century, some 16 million workers have disappeared from the labor force.

They are lying low because they have not been able to find decent jobs. Today, we’re supposed to be “beyond full employment,” implying a “labor shortage.”

But if real jobs paying good wages appeared, the gap would be quickly filled by people coming back into the labor pool.

And if unemployed Americans don’t want to work, there are still 500 million people in India and China – and an infinite number of robots and computers – willing to work for less than $5 a day.

A Bloomberg article last week, for example, tells us that computer algorithms are replacing sales reps:

Software companies have been reducing their reliance on field salespeople for a few years as they sell more cloud-based software. Now, big distribution companies like US Foods Holding Corp. and W.W. Grainger Inc. are trimming their field sales and showroom staffs. In some cases, field reps will see bigger paychecks as they’re freed up to go after more lucrative clients. Many others, though, will see their compensation inevitably fall, e-commerce consultants say.

What is really happening is the fake-money system is faking out the labor market, too. Labor-saving devices should improve capital and labor productivity (output/cost).

Prices should fall, so that even with stagnant wages, workers should be better off.

Instead, the feds inflated the money supply with fake money and raised prices, especially for financial assets like stocks and bonds. This made asset holders (the rich) much better off.

Yet it left workers with nothing to show for the improved output. Millions of jobs were lost when the machines started to sweat in the fields.

But real wages still rose… until about 1980. Since then, they have gone more or less nowhere.

What happened? Stay tuned!

Huffed and Puffed

In the meantime, back in Normandy, we watched as a giant, ancient tractor huffed and puffed, turning over so slowly we expected it to stop at any minute.

image

Bill examines the old French tractors

Then, one of the old-timers hooked it up to a long belt, which was attached to the thresher. The machine was about the size of a mobile home, outfitted with belts, pulleys, wheels, chains, cranks, pistons, and all manner of mechanical wonders.

It took a crew of a dozen men to operate it. But first, the tractor had to get the wheels turning.

The crowd looked on as the old man put the tractor into gear… adjusted some knobs… and pulled a lever. Then, the big, black machine belched smoke and moved back a few inches.

With more tension on the belt, the wheels began to turn… slowly… then faster… And then, the whole machine was chugging, spinning, up and down, back and forth, round and round.

The crowd all breathed at once… It was as if a miracle had happened.

“Look at that…” they said to one another, just as their ancestors must have marveled when the first machine appeared in Normandy a century or more ago.

“I remember using a machine like that,” said an old man with cheeks criss-crossed with fissures and the bright-red color of a man who spent his life outdoors.

“It was very hard work. And you had to keep all those belts adjusted. Something was always breaking, so you needed someone on the job who knew what he was doing. But it was a great time… the harvest, you know… and we all worked together to get it done. Sunup to sundown.

“Not like today. Some lonely fellow sits in an air-conditioned cab and does more in one day than our whole village could have done in a month. And then, he goes home and watches TV. It’s much more efficient today, of course, but not nearly as much fun.”

Loud Crack

The crowd watched as a thin man at the bottom of a conveyor loaded on sheaves of wheat. The conveyor took the wheat up to the top of the thresher, where another man with blue overalls fed it into the machine’s maw.

The wheels turned. The pulleys and belts went round and round. The screens jiggled and shook. Clouds of dust flew up. Out one end came the grains of wheat, flowing into a big, burlap bag. When the bag was full, one of the men hoisted it onto his shoulders and staggered over to a waiting wagon.

“We used to fill up bags so they weighed more than 200 pounds,” said our informant. “Can you imagine? Today, nobody can carry that much, so we only fill them to about 60 pounds.”

On the other end, a giant mechanical arm forced the straw down into a baling chute. Two men, who looked like twins, fed wire through the compressed straw and tied up the bales by hand.

Then, the straw bales were pushed out to where a young man (none of the old men were up to the challenge) picked them up and carried them over to another wagon.

Everything was going well. The crowd was celebrating this huge increase in labor efficiency wrought by mechanical engineering when suddenly, there was a loud crack.

The main belt that connected the threshing machine to its power source snapped and flew into the air. It was as if an acrobat had missed his swing or the lion tamer had been chased from the ring.

“Ohhhh…” went the crowd, deflated. It took a few seconds for the momentum of the many moving parts to dissipate; then, the dust settled and the machine was still and quiet. All we heard was the bloop… bloop… bloop of the deep-throated tractor, now released from its labors.

One of the old farmers hopped up and eased off on the throttle. And then, a group formed around the broken belt and went to work on it. Within a few minutes, the belt was repaired… and the work began again.

The bloops came faster. The wheels spun. The pulley and belts swung into action… the noise grew louder… the dust swirled… and the demonstration went on.

Regards,

signature

Bill

MARKET INSIGHT: SHORT-TERM YIELDS SPIKE

By Joe Withrow, Head of Research, Bonner & Partners

The 2-year Treasury yield has doubled over the past 12 months…

That’s the story of today’s chart, which tracks the 2-year Treasury note from the start of 2017 through today.

Chart

As you can see, the 2-year Treasury note is now yielding 2.7%. That’s double its yield in September 2017… And it’s the 2-year Treasury’s highest yield since June 2008 – before the financial crisis.

– Joe Withrow

FEATURED READS

The Secret of Creative Destruction
Early ride-sharing app Uber upended how Americans get from point A to point B. Now, nearly 10 years later, the secret to creative destruction becomes clear: Don’t ask permission.

Can We Survive the Next Financial Crisis?
Ten years ago, Lehman Brothers went under. Its demise had a seismic effect on the global stock market and on the credit market. But a decade later, the financial system should be much more stable. America’s economy should be able to weather another Lehman-style collapse… right?

Why Most Investors Can’t Beat “The Market”
Beating the average return for stocks consistently is hard… very hard. On a long-term timeline, most active managers have failed to keep pace with the return of the S&P 500. Chris Mayer, Bill’s ace stock picker, reveals why.

MAILBAG

In the mailbag, readers consider the identity of the “White House traitor”…

How come there is no video in the president’s offices to see who is coming and going? Trump can trust no one, and neither can “we, the people” who want truth, justice, and the rebirth of the American way, God, family, and country.

– June H.

Bill, have you ever thought that the “traitor(s)” you refer to in the White House staff might, in fact, be the real patriots? With a narcissistic egomaniac – who would be glad to be a dictator, since “only I can fix it” – running our country, we should be glad that some members of the crew remain committed to democracy. And with the $21 trillion national debt he has pushed off on my children and grandchildren, all I can do is shudder for posterity.

– Bruce A.

Come on, people! What White House staffer in their right mind would go to the liberal New York Times to throw shade on the president? The anonymous author is probably none other than a toned-down Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, or some other liberal trying to create a much-needed edge in the upcoming elections. Unless the market tanks, the government shuts down, or our bank accounts are frozen, the Democrats don’t stand a chance in November.

– Stephen B.

Bill, it’s not a joke what’s happening by way of the warped-left New York Times. There probably is no official at the White House working against Trump. Chances are they are highly loyal to him and his/their agenda of making the country healthier, richer, safer, smarter, etc. If there is even such a person, (rather than a fake news person trying to induce fear, negativity, and paranoia), it is probably a low-level nobody wildly exaggerating.

The left does not need to back up anything it says, especially when it cries for anyone else’s demise. It has been very sick for a long time. Trump is trying to improve things after the Obama decimation. The left does not want improvement. It is seeking total socialism from the education system to the government. I pray we aren’t forced to live it in our lifetime. We don’t all have spreads in sunny, poor Argentina.

– Claudia Y.

Is there a rat in the White House? No, I’m not referring to the head cheese, Trump! I’m writing about the person that wrote the exposé for The New York Times. I think that both Trump and his crew know who wrote that. I think they all had a hand in it. What was written will not change anyone’s mind. Those who oppose anything Trump will not be surprised. Those who support Trump will still support him. The whole story is fake news intentionally put out by Trump and his cronies as a distraction.

I give them credit for the cleverness of the ploy. If not for the attention being given to this story, more attention would be paid to the Kavanaugh hearings. This whole New York Times scenario is a canard to draw our attention away from the Supreme Court nomination hearings. Not surprising, really, considering all the other lying that comes out of Trump and his administration hourly.

– Leo G.

Meanwhile, a Dear Reader offers a suggestion: Bonner 2020…

There is no one, absolutely no one, who could be as great a president as Bill Bonner. In the debates, Bill Bonner would be recognized as the greatest. When Bill takes his oath of office in 2021, the whole world will declare, “Thank you, Jesus. Hallelujah.” Bill Bonner will be our first libertarian president. America will rejoice; “Crazytown” will be no more.

– Anonymous

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

Bill’s headed to Bermuda for the Legacy Investment Summit in the weeks ahead. And he asks you to join him…

And it’s not just Bill. Some of your favorite editors from Bill’s network – including Jeff Brown, Teeka Tiwari, and Dan Denning – will also be there. There’s still time to save a seat. Details here.