Last year at about this time, we waited for the phone to ring. Not calling were thousands of universities in need of someone to give the annual commencement speech.
On Wednesday, we showed you how our short-term indicator has turned very negative. And the US stock market looks very dangerous. In addition to near-zero growth in the first quarter, there are more and more alarming signals coming our way…
Households have less money to spend than they did 15 years ago. And companies cannot make money just by selling things to each other. The only explanation is that customers – including the US government – continue to borrow and spend.
Dear Diary, We write with a Zombie Update. As you know, annual GDP growth rates in the US have been trending lower since the end of World War II. Frequently touching on 10% in the 1950s and 1960s… we’re now lucky to get 2%. And to get that we have to pump in trillions of dollars in new liquidity into the financial system… take on staggering amounts of new debt… and bludgeon the statistics, too. After the disastrous first quarter, which saw an annualized drop in output of 2.9%, it will be hard to get back to decent figures for this year.