Editor’s Note: What happens when you get too much of a good thing in public policy, foreign affairs, politics and economics?
According to our chairman and founder, Bill Bonner, it ends in disaster.
That’s the thesis of Bill’s upcoming book, Hormegeddon: How Too Much of a Good Thing Leads to Disaster.
In today’s Weekend Edition, we’re giving you a sneak preview.
In it Bill explains what hormegeddon is… why it happens… and why you need to be wary of large-scale central planning.
Prepare for Hormegeddon
By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners
This book has a modest ambition: to catch a faint glimmer of truth, perhaps out of the corner of our eye. What truth? It is a phenomenon I call Hormegeddon.
German pharmacologist Hugo Schulz first described its scientific antecedent in 1888. He put small doses of lethal poison onto yeast and found that it actually stimulated growth. Various researchers and bio-chemical tinkerers also experimented with it in subsequent years and came to similar findings.
Finally, in 1943, two scientists published a journal article about this phenomenon and gave it a name: “hormesis.” It is what happens when a small dose of something produces a favorable result, but if you increase the dosage, the results are a disaster. Giving credit where it is due, Nassim Taleb suggested applying the term beyond pharmacology in his 2012 book, Antifragile.
Disasters come in many forms. Epidemic disease is a disaster. A fire can be a disaster. A hurricane, an earthquake, a tornado. All these natural phenomena are the disastrous versions of normal, healthy environmental processes. But this book is about another kind of natural disaster. Public-policy disasters.
Generally speaking, public-policy disasters are what you get when you apply rational, small-scale problem-solving logic to an inappropriately broad situation. First, you get a declining rate of return on your investment (of time or resources). Then, if you keep going – and you always keep going – you get a disaster.
The problem is, these disasters cannot be stopped by well-informed, smart people with good intentions, because those exact people are the ones who cause these disasters in the first place.
Beyond Our Control
“Hormegeddon” is my shorthand way of describing what happens when you have too much of a good thing in a public-policy context.
Economists describe the “too much of a good thing” phenomenon as “declining marginal utility.” The idea is well known and understood: You invest money. The first money you invest produces a good return. Then, the rate of return goes down… eventually to zero. When you get below the rate of return, on a “risk-free” Treasury bond for instance, you’re no longer earning anything for the risk you take; you’re losing money.
If you keep investing at this point, your losses will increase. What was just a bad investment becomes a disastrous investment. Economics has no special term for this stage – where marginal returns sink below zero, and you begin to get negative returns that, eventually, lead to hormegeddon.
Despite its prevalence in this world, hormegeddon trudges on in anonymity, ignored by just about everyone on the planet.
The reason is simple: Our intellectual traditions give us no purchase on it. Western thought is largely dominated by rational problem solvers.
They presume that individual human beings can consciously determine where they want to go and how to get there. I will pass over the fact that not a single human being on the planet actually got where he is by rational thought alone. Instead, we are all products of forces we can barely begin to fathom, let alone control.
Errors of a Special Sort
Few people can stomach the idea that public life is out of the conscious control of the authorities in whom they have placed so much faith. They lack what Nietzsche referred to as an “amor fati”… a faith in, and an affection for, fate.
People don’t like fate. Fate is the bad stuff that happens when no one is in charge, when chaos reigns. Instead, they believe in the ability of right-thinking experts to “do something” to bring about a better outcome than fate had in store for them.
They want a leader who will slay their enemies and bring the home team to victory. They want officials to deliver full employment, someone else’s money, the America’s Cup, and free beer on tap 24/7. They want someone in the driver’s seat who will take them where they want to go.
But where do they want to go?
They don’t know. And history is largely a record of fender benders, sideswipes and pile-ups on the way there – a place, it turns out, they really shouldn’t have been going in the first place.
History ignores the trillions of very good decisions made by private citizens in their private lives. We don’t see the calculation of the boatmen, bringing their barks to shore just before the tide turns.
We hardly notice the bowman, who sends his arrow to a spot just a few feet in front of a racing rabbit. Nor does history spend much time on the brakeman, who carefully brings the 11:07 am from New York to a halt directly in front of travelers standing on the platform at Pennsylvania Station in Baltimore.
But the competence of the brakeman, boatman and bowman make us overconfident. If we can bring a train to rest at exactly the right spot, why not an economy? If we can impose our will, by force, on a rabbit, why not on Alabama? If we can drive a car, why not a whole society?
It seems reasonable enough. And it agrees with our core intellectual bias – well established since the time of Aristotle and re-established during the Renaissance – that we are able to see, understand, and direct our future.
But if that were true, history would be a lot less colorful than it is. What actually happens is that people take on big projects. And fail miserably.
P.S. Hormegeddon: How Too Much of a Good Thing Leads to Disaster is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle. Click here to order your copy.
2018 BONNER & PARTNERS, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
40 comments. Leave new
I am happy I found you, Bill. I will order your book as soon as I can, and look forward to reading your articles.
what does Divitiae Perpetuum stand for, sign me – not a latin scholar?
You got a near universal truth right on with your (and many others’) observation that bigger is not only not better but is more often disastrous!
Please forward info. to order the book
Thank you,
Kurt Miyasaki
Interested in the book
How can I purchase Hormegeddon?
Thank you,
William
Blessings of TRUTH AND LOVE.
Mr William Bonner
I respect you.
Thank you for letting your light shine.
Is Yisrael the Hormegeddon at this time?
Student Hephzibah.
“Wealth Forever”
Hormegeddon available here — http://pro.bonnerandpartners.com/BBLHORMV2P/WBBLQ801?h=true
I want to buy 2 books-one for my son-the message said I have already ordered 1-i know -I want 2 please
Love your books!! Common sense at it’ s zenith! Can’t wait to find out what you think the “Hormesis Effect” will be (or perhaps already is) on the Internet. Reading your material reminds me of the supper table discussions with my father. I’m 70 yrs old and Dad was a ” little ahead of his time”. As a teenager I was forced to read “A Bubble That Broke the World”, written in 1932 by Garet Garret. And,Yes, there was a test afterward! I recently reread the book. It was like going “back to the future”. A road map to the future with only the names and places changed to protect the guilty!!!
Haven’t yet read the book, but the articles/reviews led me to wonder if there is any relation between these ideas and homeopathic medicine. After all, homeopaths use a similar idea from the opposite direction – instead of taking something that is ‘good’ (useful, successful, etc) at a small level and making it large enough to become ‘bad’, they (sometimes) start with something that is bad and dilute it down to a level where they think is has a good effect.
Just the first thought that came up as I was reading this material.
On a personal level, I would like to thank Mr. Bonner for the work he has shared with the public lo these many years. I have often found his thoughts and ideas very stimulating – especially those concerning the joys and trials or family and parenting.
Larry Hedgpeth
Per the comment above about the ‘Bigger is Better’ concept getting us into so much trouble, I recently saw a program on public TV about the Titanic disaster. The show went into the conceptualisation of the craft, its construction, its launching, outfitting, passengers, prevailing attitude of the White Star Line and the Captain, and far more.
The main point here is that White Star wanted to upstage Cunard for the biggest and best liner. They were struggling in the transportation market at the time, so they didn’t have the budget for a completely new ship. So, what did they do?
They took a 40 year old design of a smaller craft they had built and operated successfully. Then they expanded it, mostly by just making it larger. This is why it wasn’t particularly fast, or even notable except for the advertising.
Then when it came to its first trouble, well, very few are the people who DON’T know how THAT turned out. “Hormegeddon” is just referring to a far larger ‘craft’ that is rapidly coming into its first trouble test…
And what’ll the experts say when faced with the (financial) death of so many that trusted in them and their knowledge? “Oh. Well, WE didn’t know. Who could’ve?” Then they go on vacation and most of the rest of humanity suffers.
My thoughts after reading Hormegeddon
I thought that the opening to the book (about the end of the world in December 2012) was quite clever. I didn’t realize the significance of the date until after going back over the opening paragraphs. I also appreciated having my suspicions confirmed about why so many things are messed up in our civilization, especially the government.
However, I believe the book should have included a final chapter on “Using My Secrets to Improve Your Life.” This chapter could have gone into more detail about how to use Bill’s secrets in day-to-day life.
I don’t recall if this book included Bill’s brilliant insight about how to structure deals or transactions so the other parties always got what they wanted, including their secret desires. This insight needs to be explained in detail.
By way of emphasizing what I mean about explaining how the world works in a way that can help people improve their lives, you might like to peruse my own book located here:
https://magicsuccess.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/magic-success-secrets_pdf_aug.pdf
Before signing off, I want to say that I enjoyed Bill’s book very much. It has given me many ideas to consider.
I’m looking forward to getting your book.From what I’ve read,you may have the right answer in ways to invest and make a profit.Write soon.Thank you. Gerry
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The book is great, one of the best I’ve read in a long time. Funny, insightful and intellectually honest. I hope a spanish translation comes out soon, I have many non-english speaker friends who need to read this book.
Economics does have a term: The point of diminishing returns is the point where every dollar invested produces less and less returns until those returns are zero or negative.
I have been waiting for my hard bound copy of Hormegeddon for awhile now, is there some kind of delay?
CORRECTED COMMENT
@Larry, Yes, the hormesis concept originated as the “Arndt-Schulz Law” from the late 1800s. Schulz is who Mr. Bonner refers to in his brief description of it in his article and in the 1st chapter of his book. Both Rudolph Arndt & Hugo P. F. Schulz were homeopaths in Germany, and that law was actually included in American medical texts, including medical dictionaries, for many years. The low-dose theory was, of course, part of the basis for the low-dose remedy approach of Samuel Hahnemann’s Homeopathy. But of course, some say the homeopaths took the low-dose thing a bit too far, as to be treating illness with … NOTHING. (It remains to be seen, I guess, whether the “molecular memory” theory of homeopathy can be finally, or not, disproven.) But the Arndt-Schulz Law does not require belief in the complete dilution of a remedy (in fact, it goes just a little bit in the other direction from”no-dose” in fundamentals) so it has more viability than what the homeopathic remedy purists advocate.
But as the medical literature “evolved” (became corrupted) by the allopathic paradigm (fueled, literally, by Big Oil, so they could sell more raw materials for drugs), references to any processes smacking of homeopathy or hands-on healing (such as massage & spinal adjustments) were slowly removed from the literature. However, recent editions of Taber’s Medical Encyclopedic Dictionary retained a reference to the Arndt-Schulz Law, but called it “obsolete,” which I consider to be a grave error. It is true there were too many exceptions to the rule to call it a “law,” so some people have renamed it a Principle.
However, in manual medicine, the Arndt-Schulz Principle, along with several other “lost laws,” was revived by doctors Ray Nimmo & James Vannerson, both chiropractors, in the 1970s or so, in their healing process called the Receptor-Tonus Technique. This, a manual pressure process for reducing painful “trigger points” in the myofascial system, was the original work that became, with little modification, Neuromuscular Therapy, which the Paul St. John NMT Seminar System was teaching all over the country for the last few decades. It now has many offshoots. (European “neuromuscular therapy” has some differences to the American version.)
From an economic point of view, Nimmo tried to get more chiropractors to incorporate Receptor-Tonus Technique in their practices. But most of them did not. So the massage therapists, starting initially with Paul St. John, took over that aspect of the market. It was not until a few of the chiropractors who DID hire massage therapists to use NMT in their clinics that more chiropractors took note and began incorporating it. So, chiropractors failure to “get” the Arndt-Schulz Law (hormesis) cost them a lot of business, an entire sub-industry (massage therapy & bodywork being the overall category, NMT being the sub-category) with in the health care fields.
In practice, specifically, the “not-Law” (principle) states that Weak stimuli initiate physiologic activity, Moderate stimuli favor physiologic activity, Strong stimuli inhibit physiologic activity, and Very Strong stimuli arrest physiologic activity. Physiologic activity is generally thought to refer to the parasympathetic nerve system, which is what controls rest, repair, regeneration & immune functions of the body.
Originally, the NMT approach was to use VERY hard pressure on trigger points, because they thought the trigger points WERE the “physiologic activity,” which is opposite of reality. It was not until people like me began, in the early 1990s, pointing out they were interpreting the law backwards, that they started lightening up their pressure. As therapists started using less manual pressure, or less intense stretching, they started getting much better, longer term results. …
Hormesis at work!
I was at a hormesis conference at the University of Massachusetts in 2003, and a hundred or so very high level people — such as the head of the medical services of the United States Air Force, a head of the Nuclear Commission of Massachusetts, various doctors and PhD researchers, and so on (this was no New Age, Woo-Woo group) — were there to discuss the viability of hormesis. The conference organizer and a major proponent of hormesis, Professor Calabrese, said I appeared to be the only one at the conference, however, who was looking at the applications of hormesis (I was still calling it Arndt-Schulz) in the various fields of neuromuscular & myofascial medicine. That I consider to be a bit tragic, because I consider it to be fundamental principle of health & healing, both specifically and generally.
(The only reason I ever heard of the term “hormesis” was in, of all places, an article in American Spectator magazine.)
When I teach it in my seminars for hands-on therapists and yoga therapists (and an occasional open-minded physical therapist or two), I too call it a Principle rather than a Law, in deference to the fact there are so many other & competing factors going on. And it is so little researched in the structural & myofascial side of health & medicine, that I “play it safe” as far as making too strong a claim. But it is very clear to most people who apply it that less — often VERY much less — intense manual pressure in massage or bodywork, or far lower intensity & less deep of a therapeutic stretch or yoga, do FAR more to activate the healing mechanisms of the body than very aggressive approaches. It is especially true that the low-dose approach allows MUCH deeper relaxation, which is an important element of parasympathetic activity.
I take that so far as to make the distinction between Health & Fitness, in which if your objective is to enhance your health, lower intensity practices are better. If you want to increase your fitness, higher levels of intensity are better. HOWEVER, it is VERY easy to reach a point of diminishing returns, in that if you get TOO focused on high intensity fitness activities, you will actually reduce your overall health. This is because in high intensity activities, you are activating the Sympathetic (the 4-F System: fright, freeze, fight or flight) system. Yet when the sympathetic (fitness) system turns UP, the parasympathetic (healing) system tends to turn DOWN, to the point where some people are stuck in high sympathetic overload, and too little parasympathetic activity. So they never rebuild & regenerate, and their immune functions are suppressed. And, of course, increasing stress tends to move one to into sympathetic overload, as well. Sympathetic overload can end up becoming syndromes like fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue.
All that is ANTI-Hormesis!
So if you get too far out of balance on all this, you will actually sacrifice your health for the sake of fitness. One must find the right balance, depending on many factors. And to my knowledge, there is NO one exercise that activates BOTH the sympathetic AND parasympathetic system adequately. You need to do a low-intensity exercise (low-dose yoga or yin-style tai chi, for example), and a high intensity exercise (Matt Furey’s Combat Conditioning is probably one of The Best, or Dr. Sear’s P.A.C.E. program).
Too little experimental evidence of this for me. When serious, objective research is conducted, few alternative medical treatments pass muster. Even acupuncture, which seems intuitively satisfying, fails the “sham test.”
This is directed at David Scott Lynn’s comments. While an intelligent person without the technical knowledge displayed in your jargon can decipher much truth from your writings, perhaps you’d be well served to practice the Arndt-Schulz principle of which you so laudingly speak. Seems to me that you’ve gone way overboard with the technical jargon of chiropractors, massage therapists, physical therapists, or whomever you propose to represent. Good chance that only a few of these folks are reading this, so please humor us by using a bit more common speak when trumpeting your vast knowledge of the issue. Feel free to use your comments when speaking to your peers, but doing so here only makes one wonder who it is you are trying to impress.
I think we get the “principle” you are trying to make. Next time be a little less wordy in this setting. Thanks!
I have not yet read “Hormegeddon”, but look forward to learning some of your tips and insights. Thanks for the Book and Newsletters.. Thanks too, for the permission to reprint some of your articles on my website. I have one in the formative stage that will share content on health, fashion, and other topics of broad interest.
Best wishes.
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Reading every day the media, or financial forecast’s, gets you more confused than ever. Believing the political morons govern our country, is making you sick. So far, I have not seen anything, giving a clear view of what happens in the next few year, and I am too old at 91, to wait for miracles. In my humble opinion, Democracy will self-destruct, by irrational demands, like everything else in time. No one will stop it!
trying to order Hormegeddon book do not have amazon acc.
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cant access my bonus gifts. how do I receive those?
In regards to the last line in the third to last paragraph, I’ve pondered that same question over the decades and with the dawn of our computer age have arrived at the following analogy.
Imagine yourself on any corner in any city. Sighting one person, begin to conceive of a computer program that would mimic that individual’s financial decisions. All of them. From the impulse purchase of a candy bar to the planned purchase of a home. Perhaps a decision to start a business. The chance find of a penny, or a dime, or a dollar. Did the store clerk return him too much change and he didn’t notice? Purchase flowers for his wife or a necklace? Groceries, utilities, debts, investments, charity, family transfers… The list of what to consider is nearly endless. What about income? Paycheck, or does he do a great business on ebay? Does he trade in a lot of cash deals so as to avoid notice?
You want your program to be as accurate as possible, and as you think about it in more depth considering how to predict the timing of inflow and outflow precisely for just a single individual, it dawns upon you that this is an impossible task.
Now, multiply that by all the people in your range of vision. Disregard age or any other factor. Ok, multiply that by everyone in the city. The state. The country.
If you can do this, with accuracy, you’re a much better man in this than I. Perhaps better than any, and you’ll receive a Nobel prize when you’re old and crotchety. You should be leading the Fed!
It is the impossibility of this, and the history of central planners in the past that lead me to wonder why the Fed believes they can do it effectively.
I thank you for reading.
Nature gives us a perfect example that bigger isn’t always better- the dinosaur.
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Thank you for your feedback, Michael. We are forwarding your comment on to our editorial team.
Hey, I’m a new subscriber, with over 24 yrs, working in and teaching Alternative Medicine,. Added to that, I owned another Biz. that I worked P/T as a “Products Specialist to the Health Foods Industry & the Supplements Manufacturers Industry.” I stopped consulting in the 2nd. Biz, years ago, after Both Fields got SO Corrupt, telling SO many lies to Consumers {this was when “Whole Foods” started buying Big Independents like “Mrs. Gooches” & “Foods For Life”, etc., etc.} and so I no longer would get questions from Honest Companies, wanting to pay me for Honest Inside Information and/or Advice on Marketing an New, REALLY good Supplement! I Still retain Industry Insiders who “Blow the Whistle” on their Companies & Products, but not enough to keep my second Biz open.
Anyway:
(1) So, anyone interested in Hormesis must know or know about Dr. Art Robinson, President & Research Professor of {His} “Oregon Institute of Science & Medicine, ” who probably knows more about Hormesis, especially the Sub-Atomic & Nuclear aspects of Hormesis. Well if nso or if not, He and his Genius Scientist Sons & daughter Write and Publish THE BEST Hard Science & Health Newsletter, called “Access To Energy” that costs Only $60.00/Year! I subscribe to over 2 dozen Science & Health {Real, Natural Health} Newsletters; {Not “BigPharma or the typical AMA Hack’s Newsletters}, and Arts’s Newsletter, “Access To Energy” is the Very First I read every Month!! I HIGHLY recommend to ANYONE who thinks they know any Cutting Edge Science, in any Field. Dr. Robinson is like a living
Dr. Charles Steinmetz & Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis all rolled up into one Man!! For just one example, He had researched, written about & complied Thousands & Thousands of Original, Footnoted Research Papers Proving the Lies of Global Warming, Literally, Literally Years before anyone else had even
heard of those two Words! And He Has Proven the Liars are Story tellers, and He Politely Corrects the so-called True Believers, and is always Thanked for that Education by the Former True Believers! Every issue of his Newsletter is more of the same, about Subjects & Science that are Decades Advanced beyond your imagination! He is always First, period!
Send $60.00 to: Access To Energy, P.O. Box 1250, Cave Junction, OR 97523. Everyone Needs To Subscribe to his Newsletter!!
(2) And regarding your Crucially Important Article, that ended
with: ” One must find the right balance, depending on many factors. And to my knowledge, there is NO one exercise that activates BOTH the sympathetic AND parasympathetic system adequately. You need to do a low-intensity exercise (low-dose yoga or yin-style tai chi, for example), and a …”
Well you are SO correct that it blew me away! Because You & I Know that VERY Few Professionals, and ZERO Lay people know anything about what You were even talking about! And they therefore Believe that the Best Exercises are known to man, and don’t know {as You wrote} about the Absolute Need for that Balance that You wrote about!!
Well, an Extremely Gifted Woman & Healer, 100 years ahead of Time, named Miranda Esmonde-White, started Researching, while in her 20s, the Answer to what You wrote about! And after Decades os Study and Development & having Olympic Athletes and Professional Athletes & Hundreds of Sick people suffering from the largely unknown battle between Activity that did not Balance the Parasympathetic & Sympathetic Nervous Systems’, with even Actual Aging being Caused by the still Young Exercise Industry’s lack of knowledge that Everything
that IS being Taught about Fitness & Maintaing Health, is Actually Aging Everyone, because according to Sports Science
You can strengthen Your Muscles in one of two Ways: Eccentrically or Concentrically {one Firing the Parasympathetic & the other Firing the Sympathetic}, with the vast Majority of All that has been taught having been Systems that focused on Concentric Strengthening = which is what All Gym Exercise Systems Focuses on, with even Modern Physical Science never focusing on {the just as Important} Eccentric Strengthening!
Cutting to the chase, after 30 YEARS of Study of this and then a Fortuitous discovery of an Old and Forgotten system of a perfect Balance System of Movement called “Classical Stretch” which almost vanished, into History, She & the Director of the Montreal Royal Victoria Hospital, a Dr. Shibata, and one of those old, Retired Sports Physiotherapists named Fiona Gilmore, spent almost 30 Years and Discovered & developed the System ESSENTRICS –and combining the two led to THE one Exercise that activates all 4 Systems simultaneously, which Miranda Esmonde-White perfected and describes The Science of How & Why it works, and has produced THAT System of Exercise that she thoroughly Describes & Teaches in her new Book, “AGING BACKWARDS”! This is the Only Exercise System that Perfectly exercises ALL 620 Muscles in the Human Body, and is so Scientifically Perfect that No Injuries Ever occur and Has been Done By Thousands & Thousands of people for over 9 Years! It Has Healed The Un-Healable And Actually, no exaggeration, Reverses Aging! I’ve been doing it myself for 6 months, the First Exercise of any Kind that I’ve been able to do– after a Disabling Accident & Injury caused me Unbelievable Problems, #10 Pain that was 24/7/365 and caused me to gain over 100 pounds –all while I was working in my two Businesses! And after just 6 months of the simplest, easiest, “Classical Stretch” — I have lost over 75 pounds {doing No Aerobics & no Lifting Weights} and regained my Health in Miraculous ways, that people and Family who see me every day can not believe
their eyes– and what I do is So Easy & Simple and, the best Effects, are that I am actually experiencing “Aging Backwards” {this system also positively affects our DNA– causing us to Age Backwards! The Tests my Doctor has ben giving me produce Numbers that Reveal true “Aging Backwards.”
There are DVDs for every Condition & goal, and the Book is Revolutionary! All I can do is tell You that You won’t believe ll this has been Discovered in year 2015!
I hope both these Revelations makes your lives better! You just have to Subscribe & Buy a Book to read, & see The Scientific Proof.
After watching Bill Bonner’s videos I’m still skeptical about this drama induced video. Is it this a scare tactic to make people buy his book? Or is it actually true? US analysts knew about the recession before it happened and it wasn’t because of “Bill Bonner” or the Agora Foundation. What has been said was that it is just the beginning of the world’s markets all crashing in a ripple effect. You know this I know this that the recession was only the beginning and what comes after can only be described as Lucifer rearing his ugly head to roar.
Now I love drama, action but not the fear. Sowing fear is as ugly as it can come. It instills violence, riots, looting and even death. There is nothing to fear but fear itself and when someone comes along with a conspiracy theory that people can actually believe is true; fear becomes death itself. So one could understand why I am skeptical about this whole thing. Yeah credit is a disease and so is social networking. Too many people are “plugged In” and not enough paying attention to their surroundings. I am different, because I am not plugged in. I am a skeptic with only a few phrases: Work Till You Drop & Trust No One Save for Family.
So very glad to find some who obvioly knows his subject backwards and forwards!! You are a honest to goodnes asset to my education in the financial field as well as the deep economic problems the world faces TODAY!!!
Just finished reading Hormegeddon this evening. Found it insightful, witty, provocative, illuminating, and sprinkled with delightful historical references. I’ll never think of Baltimore again without remembering those Irish slave girls 🙂
Looking forward to Will’s promised freebie reports, too!